Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CHDRAUIB) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CHDRAUIB) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.2% to Mex$124 in the week after its latest full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of Mex$263b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de surprised by delivering a statutory profit of Mex$7.97 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's eight analysts is for revenues of Mex$279.8b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 7.7% to Mex$8.58. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$282.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$8.77 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at Mex$137, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de at Mex$160 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$117. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Compare this to the 6 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$137, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.