A Look At The Fair Value Of Alfa, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFAA)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Alfa, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFAA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Alfa. de

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (MX$, Millions)	Mex$12.7b	Mex$11.1b	Mex$10.3b	Mex$10.1b	Mex$10.1b	Mex$10.4b	Mex$10.8b	Mex$11.3b	Mex$11.9b	Mex$12.6b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -6.55%	Est @ -2.48%	Est @ 0.37%	Est @ 2.37%	Est @ 3.76%	Est @ 4.74%	Est @ 5.42%	Est @ 5.9%
Present Value (MX$, Millions) Discounted @ 17%	Mex$10.8k	Mex$8.1k	Mex$6.4k	Mex$5.4k	Mex$4.6k	Mex$4.0k	Mex$3.6k	Mex$3.2k	Mex$2.9k	Mex$2.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Mex$51b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 7.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 17%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Mex$13b× (1 + 7.0%) ÷ (17%– 7.0%) = Mex$133b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Mex$133b÷ ( 1 + 17%)¹⁰= Mex$27b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is Mex$79b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of Mex$15.3, the company appears about fair value at a 4.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alfa. de as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 17%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.609. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Alfa. de, there are three fundamental factors you should further research:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Alfa. de that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does ALFA A's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Mexican stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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