DB Inc.'s (KRX:012030) 35% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

DB Inc. (KRX:012030) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 35% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 11% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, DB's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.8x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Korea, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, DB's earnings have been unimpressive. It might be that many are expecting an improvement to the uninspiring earnings performance over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for DB

Although there are no analyst estimates available for DB, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is DB's Growth Trending?

DB's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. However, a few strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 104% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 33% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that DB is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On DB's P/E

The large bounce in DB's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of DB revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with DB, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

You might be able to find a better investment than DB. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.