Stock Analysis

    Volatility 101: Should CMS Edu (KOSDAQ:225330) Shares Have Dropped 25%?

    Source: Shutterstock

    Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Unfortunately the CMS Edu Co., Ltd. (KOSDAQ:225330) share price slid 25% over twelve months. That's well bellow the market return of 7.7%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 16% in three years.

    Check out our latest analysis for CMS Edu

    In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

    Unfortunately CMS Edu reported an EPS drop of 50% for the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 25% the share price fall. So despite the weak per-share profits, some investors are probably relieved the situation wasn't more difficult.

    You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

    KOSDAQ:A225330 Past and Future Earnings, January 22nd 2020
    KOSDAQ:A225330 Past and Future Earnings, January 22nd 2020

    Dive deeper into CMS Edu's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of CMS Edu's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

    What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

    Investors should note that there's a difference between CMS Edu's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that CMS Edu's TSR, at -19% is higher than its share price return of -25%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

    A Different Perspective

    The last twelve months weren't great for CMS Edu shares, which cost holders 19%, while the market was up about 7.7%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. Shareholders have lost 1.0% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with CMS Edu (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

    Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

    Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on KR exchanges.

    If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

    We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.