Results: ANA Holdings Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥603b, some 5.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥113, 28% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ANA Holdings

Following the latest results, ANA Holdings' eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥2.36t in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 8.3% to JP¥277 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.35t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥279 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,395, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ANA Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,100 and the most bearish at JP¥2,900 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ANA Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ANA Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while ANA Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,395, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ANA Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether ANA Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.