ANA Holdings Inc. Just Missed EPS By 25%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.1% to JP¥2,808 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥549b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 25% to hit JP¥48.84 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, ANA Holdings' twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥2.43t in 2026. This would be a modest 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 14% to JP¥277 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.42t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥282 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for ANA Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,453. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ANA Holdings at JP¥4,100 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,000. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ANA Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 40 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ANA Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ANA Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for ANA Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.