ANA Holdings Inc.

TSE:9202 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.4t

ANA Holdings Valuation

Is 9202 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9202 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9202 (¥2878) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1974.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9202 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9202?

Key metric: As 9202 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9202. This is calculated by dividing 9202's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9202's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.4x
EarningsJP¥144.67b
Market CapJP¥1.36t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9202's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9202 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.8x
9201 Japan Airlines
12.7x11.6%JP¥1.1t
9021 West Japan Railway
13x3.6%JP¥1.3t
9107 Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha
6.3x-29.3%JP¥1.4t
9206 Star Flyer
3.2xn/aJP¥9.1b
9202 ANA Holdings
9.4x1.6%JP¥1.4t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9202 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the peer average (8.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9202's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
9202 9.4xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies6PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9202 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9202's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9202 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.4x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9202 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9202 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,878.00
JP¥3,387.69
+17.7%
7.1%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,900.00n/a13
Nov ’25JP¥2,916.50
JP¥3,382.31
+16.0%
7.2%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,900.00n/a13
Oct ’25JP¥3,025.00
JP¥3,432.31
+13.5%
8.7%JP¥4,200.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Sep ’25JP¥2,945.50
JP¥3,428.46
+16.4%
8.7%JP¥4,200.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Aug ’25JP¥2,860.50
JP¥3,451.54
+20.7%
8.2%JP¥4,200.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Jul ’25JP¥2,971.00
JP¥3,472.31
+16.9%
8.6%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Jun ’25JP¥2,992.00
JP¥3,544.55
+18.5%
9.4%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,000.00n/a11
May ’25JP¥3,001.00
JP¥3,562.73
+18.7%
8.6%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Apr ’25JP¥3,182.00
JP¥3,704.55
+16.4%
9.7%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a11
Mar ’25JP¥3,244.00
JP¥3,725.00
+14.8%
10.0%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥3,309.00
JP¥3,685.00
+11.4%
11.0%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥3,060.00
JP¥3,604.55
+17.8%
8.9%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00n/a11
Dec ’24JP¥3,045.00
JP¥3,613.64
+18.7%
8.7%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥2,955.50
JP¥3,627.27
+22.7%
8.4%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,916.5011
Oct ’24JP¥3,133.00
JP¥3,600.00
+14.9%
8.5%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00JP¥3,025.0012
Sep ’24JP¥3,297.00
JP¥3,554.55
+7.8%
8.8%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,945.5011
Aug ’24JP¥3,425.00
JP¥3,481.82
+1.7%
9.9%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,860.5011
Jul ’24JP¥3,426.00
JP¥3,454.55
+0.8%
9.6%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,971.0011
Jun ’24JP¥3,104.00
JP¥3,146.00
+1.4%
10.6%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,992.0010
May ’24JP¥3,000.00
JP¥2,981.00
-0.6%
7.1%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,001.0010
Apr ’24JP¥2,876.00
JP¥2,961.00
+3.0%
6.5%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,182.0010
Mar ’24JP¥2,769.00
JP¥2,964.55
+7.1%
6.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,244.0011
Feb ’24JP¥2,873.50
JP¥2,996.00
+4.3%
5.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,309.0010
Jan ’24JP¥2,800.00
JP¥2,950.91
+5.4%
6.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,060.0011
Dec ’23JP¥2,915.00
JP¥2,873.64
-1.4%
8.1%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,450.00JP¥3,045.0011
Nov ’23JP¥2,963.50
JP¥2,769.09
-6.6%
7.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,450.00JP¥2,955.5011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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