Skymark Airlines Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9204 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9204 (¥584) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥597.86)

Is 9204 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9204 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9204 (¥584) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥597.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9204 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9204?

Key metric: As 9204 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 9204. This is calculated by dividing 9204's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 9204's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.3x
Sales	JP¥106.53b
Market Cap	JP¥34.44b

9204 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 9204's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 9204 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.4x
9206 Star Flyer	0.2x	n/a	JP¥9.1b
9201 Japan Airlines	0.6x	5.2%	JP¥1.1t
9202 ANA Holdings	0.6x	3.3%	JP¥1.3t
9028 ZERO	0.3x	n/a	JP¥39.6b
9204 Skymark Airlines	0.3x	6.4%	JP¥34.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 9204 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 9204's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 9204 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9204's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9204 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.3x
Fair PS Ratio	0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 9204 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9204 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	JP¥584.00	JP¥895.00 +53.3%	12.9%	JP¥1,000.00	JP¥700.00	n/a	4
Nov ’25	JP¥610.00	JP¥925.00 +51.6%	16.2%	JP¥1,120.00	JP¥700.00	n/a	4
Oct ’25	JP¥677.00	JP¥1,025.00 +51.4%	8.3%	JP¥1,120.00	JP¥930.00	n/a	4
Sep ’25	JP¥698.00	JP¥1,070.00 +53.3%	13.8%	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥930.00	n/a	4
Aug ’25	JP¥741.00	JP¥1,107.50 +49.5%	11.8%	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥930.00	n/a	4
Jul ’25	JP¥721.00	JP¥1,107.50 +53.6%	11.8%	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥930.00	n/a	4
Jun ’25	JP¥779.00	JP¥1,280.00 +64.3%	10.9%	JP¥1,440.00	JP¥1,100.00	n/a	3
May ’25	JP¥944.00	JP¥1,400.00 +48.3%	7.3%	JP¥1,500.00	JP¥1,260.00	n/a	3
Apr ’25	JP¥1,016.00	JP¥1,413.33 +39.1%	5.9%	JP¥1,500.00	JP¥1,300.00	n/a	3
Mar ’25	JP¥1,010.00	JP¥1,413.33 +39.9%	5.9%	JP¥1,500.00	JP¥1,300.00	n/a	3
Feb ’25	JP¥1,035.00	JP¥1,513.33 +46.2%	4.4%	JP¥1,600.00	JP¥1,440.00	n/a	3
Jan ’25	JP¥1,014.00	JP¥1,460.00 +44.0%	7.4%	JP¥1,600.00	JP¥1,300.00	n/a	4
Dec ’24	JP¥968.00	JP¥1,490.00 +53.9%	7.7%	JP¥1,600.00	JP¥1,300.00	n/a	4
Nov ’24	JP¥992.00	JP¥1,512.00 +52.4%	7.4%	JP¥1,600.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥610.00	5
Oct ’24	JP¥1,075.00	JP¥1,512.00 +40.7%	7.4%	JP¥1,600.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥677.00	5
Sep ’24	JP¥1,190.00	JP¥1,552.00 +30.4%	10.4%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥698.00	5
Aug ’24	JP¥1,201.00	JP¥1,552.00 +29.2%	10.4%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥741.00	5
Jul ’24	JP¥1,255.00	JP¥1,552.00 +23.7%	10.4%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥721.00	5
Jun ’24	JP¥1,223.00	JP¥1,550.00 +26.7%	11.6%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥779.00	4
May ’24	JP¥1,258.00	JP¥1,600.00 +27.2%	13.3%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥944.00	4
Apr ’24	JP¥1,188.00	JP¥1,783.33 +50.1%	1.3%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,016.00	3
Mar ’24	JP¥1,188.00	JP¥1,775.00 +49.4%	1.4%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,010.00	2
Feb ’24	JP¥1,421.00	JP¥1,775.00 +24.9%	1.4%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,035.00	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.