Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Japan Airlines reported JP¥1.7t in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥219 beat expectations, being 3.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Japan Airlines

Following the latest results, Japan Airlines' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥1.88t in 2025. This would be a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.4% to JP¥239. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.87t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥238 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,226, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Japan Airlines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,800 and the most bearish at JP¥2,700 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Japan Airlines' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Japan Airlines is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Japan Airlines analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Japan Airlines that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com