Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9064) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.4% to JP¥2,078. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥1.8t were what the analysts expected, Yamato Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥112 per share, an impressive 58% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Yamato Holdings. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Yamato Holdings from nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.86t in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 5.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 30% to JP¥80.93 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.85t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥91.90 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Yamato Holdings

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,860, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Yamato Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,700. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Yamato Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.8% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.3% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Yamato Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yamato Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Yamato Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Yamato Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.