Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:9048) Business Is Trailing The Market But Its Shares Aren't

It's not a stretch to say that Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:9048) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Japan, where the median P/E ratio is around 13x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Recent times have been advantageous for Nagoya Railroad as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this strong earnings performance might be about to tail off. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Nagoya Railroad

Keen to find out how analysts think Nagoya Railroad's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Some Growth For Nagoya Railroad?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Nagoya Railroad's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 21% last year. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 1.1% each year as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 9.8% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Nagoya Railroad's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Nagoya Railroad currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nagoya Railroad that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.