Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.

TSE:9048 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥332.7b

Nagoya Railroad Valuation

Is 9048 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9048 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9048 (¥1705) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥640.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9048 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9048?

Key metric: As 9048 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9048. This is calculated by dividing 9048's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9048's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.3x
EarningsJP¥36.01b
Market CapJP¥332.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9048's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9048 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.3x
9006 Keikyu
4x-53.5%JP¥355.0b
9044 Nankai Electric Railway
10x-8.2%JP¥276.1b
9003 Sotetsu Holdings
10.8x-1.5%JP¥242.4b
9008 Keio
12.4x-1.9%JP¥460.5b
9048 Nagoya Railroad
9.3x-6.0%JP¥334.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9048 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9048's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
9048 9.3xIndustry Avg. 10.3xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9048 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the JP Transportation industry average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9048's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9048 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.3x
Fair PE Ratio11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9048 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9048 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,705.00
JP¥2,050.00
+20.2%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Dec ’25JP¥1,738.50
JP¥2,050.00
+17.9%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥1,670.50
JP¥2,050.00
+22.7%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥1,736.00
JP¥2,050.00
+18.1%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥1,742.50
JP¥2,223.33
+27.6%
12.3%JP¥2,570.00JP¥1,900.00n/a3
Aug ’25JP¥1,789.50
JP¥2,223.33
+24.2%
12.3%JP¥2,570.00JP¥1,900.00n/a3
Jul ’25JP¥1,756.00
JP¥2,223.33
+26.6%
12.3%JP¥2,570.00JP¥1,900.00n/a3
Jun ’25JP¥1,800.50
JP¥2,423.33
+34.6%
6.6%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,200.00n/a3
May ’25JP¥2,051.50
JP¥2,456.67
+19.7%
4.7%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Apr ’25JP¥2,158.50
JP¥2,456.67
+13.8%
4.7%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Mar ’25JP¥2,139.00
JP¥2,490.00
+16.4%
5.4%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Feb ’25JP¥2,269.00
JP¥2,470.00
+8.9%
5.1%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Jan ’25JP¥2,263.00
JP¥2,470.00
+9.1%
5.1%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Dec ’24JP¥2,161.50
JP¥2,503.33
+15.8%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,738.503
Nov ’24JP¥2,121.50
JP¥2,503.33
+18.0%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,670.503
Oct ’24JP¥2,207.50
JP¥2,503.33
+13.4%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,736.003
Sep ’24JP¥2,357.00
JP¥2,503.33
+6.2%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,742.503
Aug ’24JP¥2,285.50
JP¥2,430.00
+6.3%
7.9%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥1,789.503
Jul ’24JP¥2,312.00
JP¥2,430.00
+5.1%
7.9%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥1,756.003
Jun ’24JP¥2,292.00
JP¥2,363.33
+3.1%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥1,800.503
May ’24JP¥2,225.00
JP¥2,363.33
+6.2%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,051.503
Apr ’24JP¥2,044.00
JP¥2,363.33
+15.6%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,158.503
Mar ’24JP¥2,066.00
JP¥2,363.33
+14.4%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,139.003
Feb ’24JP¥2,117.00
JP¥2,363.33
+11.6%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,269.003
Jan ’24JP¥2,179.00
JP¥2,293.33
+5.2%
7.5%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,080.00JP¥2,263.003
Dec ’23JP¥2,212.00
JP¥2,326.67
+5.2%
9.2%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,080.00JP¥2,161.503

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 12:33
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd. is covered by 7 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullCompany Forecast
Ryota HimenoJ.P. Morgan
Hiroaki MochidaMarusan Securities Co. Ltd.