Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.

TSE:9048 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥340.9b

Nagoya Railroad Valuation

Is 9048 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9048 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9048 (¥1733.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥636.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9048 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9048?

Key metric: As 9048 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9048. This is calculated by dividing 9048's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9048's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.5x
EarningsJP¥36.01b
Market CapJP¥340.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9048's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9048 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.9x
9006 Keikyu
3.8x-53.7%JP¥334.5b
9044 Nankai Electric Railway
10x-8.2%JP¥277.0b
9003 Sotetsu Holdings
10.8x-1.5%JP¥242.5b
9001 Tobu Railway
10.9x-1.8%JP¥512.8b
9048 Nagoya Railroad
9.5x-7.4%JP¥340.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9048 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9048's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
9048 9.5xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9048 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the JP Transportation industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9048's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9048 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.5x
Fair PE Ratio11x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9048 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9048 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,733.50
JP¥2,050.00
+18.3%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥1,670.50
JP¥2,050.00
+22.7%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥1,736.00
JP¥2,050.00
+18.1%
7.3%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,900.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥1,742.50
JP¥2,223.33
+27.6%
12.3%JP¥2,570.00JP¥1,900.00n/a3
Aug ’25JP¥1,789.50
JP¥2,223.33
+24.2%
12.3%JP¥2,570.00JP¥1,900.00n/a3
Jul ’25JP¥1,756.00
JP¥2,223.33
+26.6%
12.3%JP¥2,570.00JP¥1,900.00n/a3
Jun ’25JP¥1,800.50
JP¥2,423.33
+34.6%
6.6%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,200.00n/a3
May ’25JP¥2,051.50
JP¥2,456.67
+19.7%
4.7%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Apr ’25JP¥2,158.50
JP¥2,456.67
+13.8%
4.7%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Mar ’25JP¥2,139.00
JP¥2,490.00
+16.4%
5.4%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Feb ’25JP¥2,269.00
JP¥2,470.00
+8.9%
5.1%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Jan ’25JP¥2,263.00
JP¥2,470.00
+9.1%
5.1%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Dec ’24JP¥2,161.50
JP¥2,503.33
+15.8%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00n/a3
Nov ’24JP¥2,121.50
JP¥2,503.33
+18.0%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,670.503
Oct ’24JP¥2,207.50
JP¥2,503.33
+13.4%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,736.003
Sep ’24JP¥2,357.00
JP¥2,503.33
+6.2%
6.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,742.503
Aug ’24JP¥2,285.50
JP¥2,430.00
+6.3%
7.9%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥1,789.503
Jul ’24JP¥2,312.00
JP¥2,430.00
+5.1%
7.9%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥1,756.003
Jun ’24JP¥2,292.00
JP¥2,363.33
+3.1%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥1,800.503
May ’24JP¥2,225.00
JP¥2,363.33
+6.2%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,051.503
Apr ’24JP¥2,044.00
JP¥2,363.33
+15.6%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,158.503
Mar ’24JP¥2,066.00
JP¥2,363.33
+14.4%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,139.003
Feb ’24JP¥2,117.00
JP¥2,363.33
+11.6%
4.1%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,290.00JP¥2,269.003
Jan ’24JP¥2,179.00
JP¥2,293.33
+5.2%
7.5%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,080.00JP¥2,263.003
Dec ’23JP¥2,212.00
JP¥2,326.67
+5.2%
9.2%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,080.00JP¥2,161.503
Nov ’23JP¥2,290.00
JP¥2,326.67
+1.6%
9.2%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,080.00JP¥2,121.503

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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