Central Japan Railway Company Just Recorded A 8.3% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a pretty great week for Central Japan Railway Company (TSE:9022) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to JP¥3,236 in the week since its latest annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥1.8t were in line with what the analysts predicted, Central Japan Railway surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥466 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Central Japan Railway from eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.87t in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 2.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 2.4% to JP¥455 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.86t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥441 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Central Japan Railway

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥3,473, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Central Japan Railway analyst has a price target of JP¥4,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,800. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Central Japan Railway's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 47 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Central Japan Railway is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Central Japan Railway following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,473, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Central Japan Railway. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Central Japan Railway going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Central Japan Railway that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.