SoftBank (TSE:9984) Valuation in Focus Following OpenAI’s Record $500B Milestone and New AI Initiatives

SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) is getting fresh attention from investors after taking part in OpenAI’s $6.6 billion employee share sale. This move pushed OpenAI’s valuation to $500 billion and set a new benchmark among startups.

See our latest analysis for SoftBank Group.

SoftBank Group’s momentum is gaining steam, with its shares edging higher following the OpenAI deal and a series of headline partnerships, including plans to co-develop major AI data centers across the US. While the 1-year total shareholder return stands at 1.34%, recent enthusiasm signals investors are again betting on SoftBank’s long-term transformation story.

If recent AI milestones make you wonder what else the market is cooking up, now is the perfect time to discover See the full list for free.

With AI excitement running high and SoftBank’s shares on the rise, investors now face a critical question: is there still untapped value in the stock, or is the recent rally simply the market pricing in what is ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 23% Overvalued

SoftBank Group’s latest fair value estimate of ¥16,199 sits well below its last close near ¥19,980, reflecting a significant gap between analyst projections and current market optimism.

The prevailing narrative centers on AI adoption as an unstoppable growth engine across industries. However, high valuations now may ignore the risk that normalization of interest rates and tighter funding could compress multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive private tech ventures. This could lead to lower Vision Fund investment returns and potential write-downs, reducing net margins and earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to uncover the driving forces behind this bold valuation call? Hint: it all hangs on growth fading much quicker than the market expects and a single metric typically reserved for fast-growing disruptors. Dive in and see why analysts believe high-flying optimism could meet a harsh market reality.

Result: Fair Value of ¥16,199 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rapid AI adoption and ongoing asset monetization could offset current concerns. These factors could potentially lift SoftBank’s earnings and net asset value faster than forecast.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Send a Different Signal

Another way to look at SoftBank Group’s valuation is through its price-to-earnings ratio. At 16.4x, the ratio is lower than both the industry average (20x) and the peer average (16.4x), and it sits beneath the fair ratio of 17.4x. This suggests the stock may offer relative value compared to competitors. But are these price gaps a sign of true bargain, or do they reflect deeper risks for investors ahead?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can craft your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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