Canon Inc.'s (TSE:7751) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

It's not a stretch to say that Canon Inc.'s (TSE:7751) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Japan, where the median P/E ratio is around 15x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Canon has been doing relatively well. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this strong earnings performance might be about to tail off. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Canon

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

Canon's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 12%. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see EPS up by 237% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 7.5% each year as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that Canon's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Canon currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Canon.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.