Shimadzu Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for Shimadzu Corporation (TSE:7701) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 5.5% to JP¥4,724. Statutory earnings per share of JP¥72.38 unfortunately missed expectations by 16%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of JP¥251b exceed expectations by 3.0%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Shimadzu

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Shimadzu's eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥534.3b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 13% to JP¥198. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥532.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥197 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥5,251, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Shimadzu, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥6,000 and the most bearish at JP¥4,600 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Shimadzu is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Shimadzu's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Shimadzu.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shimadzu going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.