Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Keyence Corporation's (TSE:6861) First-Quarter Report

Last week, you might have seen that Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.9% to JP¥65,120 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥247b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥1,524. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Keyence

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Keyence's 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.07t in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 7.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 6.8% to JP¥1,665. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.07t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,676 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥79,125, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Keyence, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥96,000 and the most bearish at JP¥53,000 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Keyence's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.3% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Keyence is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥79,125, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Keyence. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Keyence going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com