Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that AR advanced technology, Inc. (TSE:5578) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for AR advanced technology
How Much Debt Does AR advanced technology Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of November 2024, AR advanced technology had JP¥1.90b of debt, up from JP¥880.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds JP¥2.34b in cash, so it actually has JP¥444.0m net cash.
A Look At AR advanced technology's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that AR advanced technology had liabilities of JP¥3.34b due within 12 months and liabilities of JP¥913.0m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of JP¥2.34b and JP¥1.69b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total JP¥219.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Of course, AR advanced technology has a market capitalization of JP¥5.81b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, AR advanced technology boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for AR advanced technology if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 36% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since AR advanced technology will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. AR advanced technology may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, AR advanced technology recorded free cash flow worth 56% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Summing Up
We could understand if investors are concerned about AR advanced technology's liabilities, but we can be reassured by the fact it has has net cash of JP¥444.0m. So we don't have any problem with AR advanced technology's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for AR advanced technology (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:5578
AR advanced technology
Provides DX solutions utilizing cloud technology, data, and AI in Japan.
Adequate balance sheet slight.
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