Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of CYND Co., Ltd. (TSE:4256)

Key Insights

• CYND's estimated fair value is JP¥1,360 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of JP¥1,171 suggests CYND is potentially trading close to its fair value
• CYND's peers are currently trading at a premium of 49% on average

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of CYND Co., Ltd. (TSE:4256) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for CYND

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥381.6m	JP¥403.6m	JP¥420.3m	JP¥432.8m	JP¥442.3m	JP¥449.4m	JP¥455.0m	JP¥459.3m	JP¥462.8m	JP¥465.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 8.11%	Est @ 5.77%	Est @ 4.13%	Est @ 2.98%	Est @ 2.18%	Est @ 1.62%	Est @ 1.23%	Est @ 0.95%	Est @ 0.76%	Est @ 0.62%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.9%	JP¥360	JP¥360	JP¥354	JP¥344	JP¥332	JP¥318	JP¥304	JP¥290	JP¥276	JP¥262

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥3.2b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥466m× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (5.9%– 0.3%) = JP¥8.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥8.3b÷ ( 1 + 5.9%)¹⁰= JP¥4.7b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is JP¥7.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of JP¥1.2k, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CYND as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.126. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for CYND

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For CYND, we've put together three fundamental elements you should explore:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for CYND that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does 4256's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.