GMO Pepabo's (TSE:3633) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock soars 11% this past week

GMO Pepabo, Inc. (TSE:3633) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last week. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 25% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

GMO Pepabo became profitable within the last five years. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

It's quite likely that the declining dividend has caused some investors to sell their shares, pushing the price lower in the process. In contrast it does not seem particularly likely that the revenue levels are a concern for investors.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that GMO Pepabo has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on GMO Pepabo

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for GMO Pepabo the TSR over the last 3 years was -20%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that GMO Pepabo has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 2% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand GMO Pepabo better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for GMO Pepabo that you should be aware of.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.