Lasertec Corporation Just Missed EPS By 47%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Lasertec Corporation (TSE:6920), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (JP¥40b) coming in 31% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of JP¥104 fell 47% short. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Following the latest results, Lasertec's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥252.2b in 2026. This would be a solid 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 12% to JP¥870. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥258.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥887 in 2026. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

View our latest analysis for Lasertec

The average price target was reduced 7.0% to JP¥19,684, with the lower revenue forecasts indicating negative sentiment towards Lasertec, even though earnings forecasts were unchanged. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lasertec at JP¥43,267 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥10,500. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Lasertec's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 36% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 58 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Lasertec is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Lasertec analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Lasertec .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.