ULVAC, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for ULVAC, Inc. (TSE:6728) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to JP¥6,171 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥251b, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥339 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, ULVAC's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥250.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 13% to JP¥383. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥253.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥417 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for ULVAC

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,967, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ULVAC, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥10,000 and the most bearish at JP¥6,400 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.3% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ULVAC is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ULVAC analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ULVAC , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.