Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a mediocre week for Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9843) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to JP¥15,495 in the week since its latest full-year results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥929b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit JP¥680 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nitori Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥969.5b in 2026. This would reflect a credible 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 18% to JP¥805. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥970.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥843 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Nitori Holdings

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥17,798, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Nitori Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥20,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥16,000. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Nitori Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 6.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nitori Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nitori Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Nitori Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.