Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9831) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to JP¥433 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥1.6t, although statutory earnings per share came in 15% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥34.78 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yamada Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Yamada Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Yamada Holdings from seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.64t in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 31% to JP¥45.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.65t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥46.51 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥497, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yamada Holdings at JP¥550 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥460. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Yamada Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.9% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.6% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Yamada Holdings' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yamada Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥497, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Yamada Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Yamada Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.