Earnings Miss: Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 48% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9831) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 7.6% to JP¥469. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥4.56, some 48% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥796b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Yamada Holdings

Following last week's earnings report, Yamada Holdings' six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥1.64t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 22% to JP¥41.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.65t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥42.51 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥496, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Yamada Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥550 and the most bearish at JP¥460 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Yamada Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.0% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.9% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Yamada Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yamada Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Yamada Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Yamada Holdings (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.