Results: JINS HOLDINGS Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a mediocre week for JINS HOLDINGS Inc. (TSE:3046) shareholders, with the stock dropping 16% to JP¥3,480 in the week since its latest half-yearly results. Revenues were JP¥38b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥41.86 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for JINS HOLDINGS

Following the latest results, JINS HOLDINGS' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥80.6b in 2024. This would be a modest 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 40% to JP¥152. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥80.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥163 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,875, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JINS HOLDINGS at JP¥5,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,500. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting JINS HOLDINGS' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that JINS HOLDINGS is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JINS HOLDINGS. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JINS HOLDINGS. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for JINS HOLDINGS going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for JINS HOLDINGS that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.