Area Quest Inc.'s (TSE:8912) 43% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Area Quest Inc. (TSE:8912) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 43% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 62%.

Since its price has surged higher, Area Quest's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.1x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Area Quest has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Area Quest

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Area Quest will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Area Quest would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 24% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen a 18% overall rise in EPS, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 11% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

With this information, we find it concerning that Area Quest is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Area Quest's P/E?

Area Quest shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Area Quest revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Area Quest is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those don't sit too well with us.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Area Quest. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.