Nomura Real Estate Holdings' (TSE:3231) investors will be pleased with their favorable 74% return over the last five years

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. (TSE:3231) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 44% over five years, which is below the market return. But if you include dividends then the return is market-beating. Meanwhile, the last twelve months saw the share price rise 3.9%.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Real Estate Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, Nomura Real Estate Holdings managed to grow its earnings per share at 13% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 8% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 8.44 also suggests market apprehension.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that Nomura Real Estate Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Nomura Real Estate Holdings will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Nomura Real Estate Holdings, it has a TSR of 74% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Nomura Real Estate Holdings shareholders gained a total return of 7.9% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 12% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Nomura Real Estate Holdings (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.