Kissei Pharmaceutical (TSE:4547) sheds 6.5% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4547) shareholders have seen the share price rise 57% over three years, well in excess of the market return (37%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 25%, including dividends.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.5%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

See our latest analysis for Kissei Pharmaceutical

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Kissei Pharmaceutical achieved compound earnings per share growth of 31% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 16% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that Kissei Pharmaceutical has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Kissei Pharmaceutical's TSR for the last 3 years was 70%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Kissei Pharmaceutical has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 25% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Kissei Pharmaceutical (including 1 which is concerning) .

We will like Kissei Pharmaceutical better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.