Tsumura & Co. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Tsumura & Co. (TSE:4540) recently reported its half-yearly numbers. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥45b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit JP¥83.26 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Tsumura

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Tsumura are now predicting revenues of JP¥185.6b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 19% to JP¥396. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥185.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥395 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥5,280. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tsumura at JP¥6,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,400. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tsumura's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Tsumura to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Tsumura analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tsumura has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.