Earnings Miss: Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 12% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4528) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.6% to JP¥1,558 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥487b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit JP¥107 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ono Pharmaceutical after the latest results.

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Following the latest results, Ono Pharmaceutical's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥517.8b in 2026. This would be an okay 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 39% to JP¥148. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥521.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥135 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Ono Pharmaceutical's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Ono Pharmaceutical

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥1,688, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ono Pharmaceutical at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,400. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ono Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 6.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Ono Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ono Pharmaceutical following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ono Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Ono Pharmaceutical that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.