Shionogi & Co., Ltd. Just Recorded A 19% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

A week ago, Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) came out with a strong set of half-year numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.1% to hit JP¥214b. Shionogi reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) JP¥97.74, which was a notable 19% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Shionogi

After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Shionogi are now predicting revenues of JP¥454.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.6% to JP¥192. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥437.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥190 in 2025. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small lift in to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,461, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Shionogi's valuation in the near term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shionogi at JP¥3,023 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,800. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shionogi's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Shionogi's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Shionogi's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,461, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shionogi going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shionogi you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.