Astellas Pharma Inc. Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Astellas Pharma Inc. (TSE:4503) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.3% to JP¥1,433 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues beat expectations by 19% to hit JP¥517b, although earnings fell badly short, with Astellas Pharma reported a statutory loss of JP¥54.55 per share even though the analysts had been forecasting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Astellas Pharma after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Astellas Pharma

Taking into account the latest results, Astellas Pharma's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.88t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Astellas Pharma is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of JP¥79.36 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.89t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥78.31 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,949, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Astellas Pharma at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,400. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Astellas Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Astellas Pharma is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Astellas Pharma's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Astellas Pharma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Astellas Pharma that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.