NJ Holdings Inc.'s (TSE:9421) Share Price Boosted 27% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Despite an already strong run, NJ Holdings Inc. (TSE:9421) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Even after such a large jump in price, it would still be understandable if you think NJ Holdings is a stock with good investment prospects with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 0.4x, considering almost half the companies in Japan's Entertainment industry have P/S ratios above 1.3x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

View our latest analysis for NJ Holdings

How NJ Holdings Has Been Performing

For instance, NJ Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing revenue performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/S. Those who are bullish on NJ Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on NJ Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, NJ Holdings would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 25% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we understand why NJ Holdings' P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Final Word

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift NJ Holdings' P/S close to the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

It's no surprise that NJ Holdings maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that the share price will experience any significant movement in either direction in the near future if recent medium-term revenue trends persist.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for NJ Holdings that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.