Results: CyberAgent, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Yes it's been a pretty great week for CyberAgent, Inc. ( TSE:4751 ) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to JP¥1,410 in the week since its latest half-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥217b were what the analysts expected, CyberAgent surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥21.31 per share, an impressive 23% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, CyberAgent's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥845.7b in 2025. This would be a modest 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 17% to JP¥51.43. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥849.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥48.60 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for CyberAgent

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.2% to JP¥1,379. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CyberAgent at JP¥1,650 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,200. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that CyberAgent's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that CyberAgent is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CyberAgent's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple CyberAgent analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.