Earnings Miss: CyberAgent, Inc. Missed EPS By 10.0% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in CyberAgent, Inc. (TSE:4751) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.9% to close at JP¥1,019 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues of JP¥803b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥32.09, missing estimates by 10.0%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for CyberAgent

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for CyberAgent from 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥837.7b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 46% to JP¥46.74. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥841.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥47.01 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,161, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CyberAgent at JP¥1,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,000. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that CyberAgent's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 119 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while CyberAgent's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,161, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for CyberAgent going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for CyberAgent that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.