Subdued Growth No Barrier To gumi Inc. (TSE:3903) With Shares Advancing 39%

gumi Inc. (TSE:3903) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 39% after a shaky period beforehand. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 15% is also fairly reasonable.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies operating in Japan's Entertainment industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider gumi as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.9x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Check out our latest analysis for gumi

How gumi Has Been Performing

For example, consider that gumi's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for gumi, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like gumi's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 14% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 33% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 10% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that gumi is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From gumi's P/S?

gumi shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that gumi currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for gumi (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

If you're unsure about the strength of gumi's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.