JFE Holdings, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 27%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The third-quarter results for JFE Holdings, Inc. (TSE:5411) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were JP¥1.2t, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥90.58, an impressive 27% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for JFE Holdings

Following last week's earnings report, JFE Holdings' nine analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥4.93t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 26% to JP¥267. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥4.94t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥276 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,936, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JFE Holdings at JP¥2,270 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,700. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.9% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - JFE Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JFE Holdings. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that JFE Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JFE Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JFE Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with JFE Holdings (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.