Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd.

TSE:5301 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥189.3b

Tokai Carbon Valuation

Is 5301 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5301 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5301 (¥886.9) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥587.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5301 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5301?

Key metric: As 5301 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 5301. This is calculated by dividing 5301's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 5301's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.6x
EarningsJP¥9.68b
Market CapJP¥189.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 5301's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 5301 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.2x
7966 LINTEC
14.7x10.5%JP¥207.0b
4061 Denka
20.8x64.3%JP¥182.3b
4118 Kaneka
9.4x9.0%JP¥229.6b
4107 ISE Chemicals
27.8x-0.6%JP¥136.6b
5301 Tokai Carbon
19.6x29.3%JP¥189.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 5301 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the peer average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 5301's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$30.65m
No more companies available in this PE range
5301 19.6xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies20PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 5301 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5301's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5301 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 5301 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5301 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥886.90
JP¥1,075.00
+21.2%
8.4%JP¥1,200.00JP¥950.00n/a4
Dec ’25JP¥906.40
JP¥1,075.00
+18.6%
8.4%JP¥1,200.00JP¥950.00n/a4
Nov ’25JP¥859.30
JP¥1,100.00
+28.0%
21.6%JP¥1,500.00JP¥900.00n/a4
Oct ’25JP¥923.70
JP¥1,120.00
+21.3%
20.3%JP¥1,500.00JP¥900.00n/a4
Sep ’25JP¥889.70
JP¥1,120.00
+25.9%
20.3%JP¥1,500.00JP¥900.00n/a4
Aug ’25JP¥954.00
JP¥1,195.00
+25.3%
16.8%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Jul ’25JP¥926.00
JP¥1,195.00
+29.0%
16.8%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Jun ’25JP¥996.00
JP¥1,195.00
+20.0%
16.8%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
May ’25JP¥1,039.00
JP¥1,220.00
+17.4%
15.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Apr ’25JP¥988.40
JP¥1,220.00
+23.4%
15.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Mar ’25JP¥975.40
JP¥1,220.00
+25.1%
15.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥1,032.00
JP¥1,220.00
+18.2%
15.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Jan ’25JP¥1,025.50
JP¥1,220.00
+19.0%
15.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00n/a4
Dec ’24JP¥1,100.00
JP¥1,220.00
+10.9%
15.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥906.404
Nov ’24JP¥1,181.50
JP¥1,307.50
+10.7%
13.6%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,150.00JP¥859.304
Oct ’24JP¥1,171.00
JP¥1,307.50
+11.7%
13.6%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,150.00JP¥923.704
Sep ’24JP¥1,170.50
JP¥1,442.50
+23.2%
12.1%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,180.00JP¥889.704
Aug ’24JP¥1,257.00
JP¥1,510.00
+20.1%
11.7%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥954.004
Jul ’24JP¥1,318.00
JP¥1,547.50
+17.4%
9.0%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,390.00JP¥926.004
Jun ’24JP¥1,154.00
JP¥1,572.50
+36.3%
9.9%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,390.00JP¥996.004
May ’24JP¥1,255.00
JP¥1,565.00
+24.7%
10.3%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,039.004
Apr ’24JP¥1,260.00
JP¥1,565.00
+24.2%
10.3%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥988.404
Mar ’24JP¥1,338.00
JP¥1,487.50
+11.2%
13.9%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥975.404
Feb ’24JP¥1,119.00
JP¥1,442.50
+28.9%
16.5%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,032.004
Jan ’24JP¥1,073.00
JP¥1,462.50
+36.3%
15.2%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,025.504
Dec ’23JP¥1,094.00
JP¥1,462.50
+33.7%
15.2%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,100.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 18:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. is covered by 17 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Takashi EnomotoBofA Global Research
Atsushi IkedaCitigroup Inc
null nullCompany Forecast