Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Investors in Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:4186) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.4% to close at JP¥3,783 following the release of its full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥201b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥187 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo

Following the latest results, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo's 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥218.1b in 2025. This would be a solid 8.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 5.6% to JP¥200. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥218.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥200 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,453, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tokyo Ohka Kogyo at JP¥5,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,700. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tokyo Ohka Kogyo's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Tokyo Ohka Kogyo's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tokyo Ohka Kogyo is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.