Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd.

TSE:4186 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥420.3b

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Valuation

Is 4186 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4186 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4186 (¥3468) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5073.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4186 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4186?

Key metric: As 4186 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4186. This is calculated by dividing 4186's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4186's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.2x
EarningsJP¥20.83b
Market CapJP¥420.31b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4186's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4186 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.9x
4613 Kansai Paint
10.7x-1.0%JP¥389.0b
4203 Sumitomo Bakelite
15x8.7%JP¥353.4b
4114 Nippon Shokubai
21.8x9.5%JP¥284.6b
4626 Taiyo Holdings
19.9x14.8%JP¥231.7b
4186 Tokyo Ohka Kogyo
20.2x11.7%JP¥420.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4186 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4186's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$31.27m
No more companies available in this PE range
4186 20.2xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies20PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4186 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4186's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4186 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.2x
Fair PE Ratio16x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4186 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4186 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,468.00
JP¥4,606.88
+32.8%
14.0%JP¥5,310.00JP¥3,500.00n/a16
Nov ’25JP¥3,493.00
JP¥4,616.25
+32.2%
14.2%JP¥5,310.00JP¥3,500.00n/a16
Oct ’25JP¥3,565.00
JP¥4,644.00
+30.3%
14.0%JP¥5,310.00JP¥3,500.00n/a15
Sep ’25JP¥3,618.00
JP¥4,750.67
+31.3%
10.7%JP¥5,310.00JP¥3,600.00n/a15
Aug ’25JP¥3,741.00
JP¥4,910.67
+31.3%
8.7%JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,100.00n/a15
Jul ’25JP¥4,294.00
JP¥4,917.33
+14.5%
8.9%JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,100.00n/a15
Jun ’25JP¥4,100.00
JP¥4,617.56
+12.6%
15.1%JP¥5,400.00JP¥2,760.00n/a15
May ’25JP¥4,189.00
JP¥4,577.56
+9.3%
15.0%JP¥5,400.00JP¥2,760.00n/a15
Apr ’25JP¥4,378.00
JP¥4,554.52
+4.0%
15.6%JP¥5,500.00JP¥2,760.00n/a14
Mar ’25JP¥4,709.00
JP¥4,273.33
-9.3%
15.4%JP¥5,300.00JP¥2,760.00n/a13
Feb ’25JP¥3,407.00
JP¥3,506.41
+2.9%
14.9%JP¥4,666.67JP¥2,760.00n/a13
Jan ’25JP¥3,112.00
JP¥3,447.46
+10.8%
14.5%JP¥4,666.67JP¥2,760.00n/a13
Dec ’24JP¥3,023.67
JP¥3,338.89
+10.4%
16.3%JP¥4,666.67JP¥2,500.00n/a15
Nov ’24JP¥2,876.67
JP¥3,375.56
+17.3%
16.9%JP¥4,666.67JP¥2,466.67JP¥3,493.0015
Oct ’24JP¥2,965.33
JP¥3,337.33
+12.5%
19.3%JP¥4,666.67JP¥2,066.67JP¥3,565.0015
Sep ’24JP¥3,273.00
JP¥3,284.67
+0.4%
19.8%JP¥4,666.67JP¥2,066.67JP¥3,618.0015
Aug ’24JP¥3,014.00
JP¥2,906.00
-3.6%
15.1%JP¥3,833.33JP¥2,066.67JP¥3,741.0015
Jul ’24JP¥2,923.67
JP¥2,848.22
-2.6%
13.1%JP¥3,666.67JP¥2,066.67JP¥4,294.0015
Jun ’24JP¥2,803.33
JP¥2,737.56
-2.3%
14.0%JP¥3,300.00JP¥1,930.00JP¥4,100.0015
May ’24JP¥2,376.67
JP¥2,753.11
+15.8%
14.0%JP¥3,333.33JP¥1,930.00JP¥4,189.0015
Apr ’24JP¥2,563.33
JP¥2,766.43
+7.9%
14.9%JP¥3,333.33JP¥1,930.00JP¥4,378.0014
Mar ’24JP¥2,483.33
JP¥2,740.24
+10.3%
15.4%JP¥3,333.33JP¥1,930.00JP¥4,709.0014
Feb ’24JP¥2,136.67
JP¥2,655.00
+24.3%
17.3%JP¥3,666.67JP¥1,930.00JP¥3,407.0014
Jan ’24JP¥1,996.67
JP¥2,666.90
+33.6%
18.0%JP¥3,666.67JP¥1,930.00JP¥3,112.0014
Dec ’23JP¥2,326.67
JP¥2,776.90
+19.4%
18.0%JP¥3,666.67JP¥2,066.67JP¥3,023.6714
Nov ’23JP¥2,156.67
JP¥2,800.00
+29.8%
18.8%JP¥3,666.67JP¥2,056.67JP¥2,876.6715

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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