Sumitomo Bakelite Company Limited

TSE:4203 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥355.8b

Sumitomo Bakelite Valuation

Is 4203 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4203 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4203 (¥3780) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5683.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4203 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4203?

Key metric: As 4203 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4203. This is calculated by dividing 4203's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4203's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15x
EarningsJP¥23.50b
Market CapJP¥355.81b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4203's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4203 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18x
4613 Kansai Paint
10.8x-1.0%JP¥393.3b
4186 Tokyo Ohka Kogyo
20x11.7%JP¥415.7b
4114 Nippon Shokubai
21.4x9.5%JP¥280.2b
4626 Taiyo Holdings
19.9x14.8%JP¥231.7b
4203 Sumitomo Bakelite
15x10.3%JP¥352.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4203 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the peer average (18x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4203's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$31.08m
No more companies available in this PE range
4203 15.0xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies19PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4203 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4203's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4203 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15x
Fair PE Ratio14.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4203 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4203 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,777.00
JP¥4,925.00
+30.4%
9.0%JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,100.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥3,925.00
JP¥4,925.00
+25.5%
9.0%JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,100.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥4,093.00
JP¥4,741.67
+15.8%
13.2%JP¥5,400.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥3,869.00
JP¥4,758.33
+23.0%
12.9%JP¥5,300.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥4,034.00
JP¥4,858.33
+20.4%
11.2%JP¥5,300.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
Jul ’25JP¥4,672.00
JP¥4,875.00
+4.3%
11.4%JP¥5,400.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
Jun ’25JP¥4,340.00
JP¥4,758.33
+9.6%
12.9%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥4,494.00
JP¥4,583.33
+2.0%
14.0%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
Apr ’25JP¥4,494.00
JP¥4,583.33
+2.0%
14.0%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,750.00n/a6
Mar ’25JP¥4,461.50
JP¥4,090.00
-8.3%
5.1%JP¥4,350.00JP¥3,750.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥3,668.50
JP¥3,960.00
+7.9%
5.9%JP¥4,350.00JP¥3,750.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥3,701.50
JP¥3,900.00
+5.4%
3.8%JP¥4,100.00JP¥3,750.00n/a5
Dec ’24JP¥3,595.00
JP¥3,660.00
+1.8%
10.0%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,950.00n/a5
Nov ’24JP¥3,361.00
JP¥3,580.00
+6.5%
10.1%JP¥4,000.00JP¥3,150.00JP¥3,925.005
Oct ’24JP¥3,261.50
JP¥3,580.00
+9.8%
10.1%JP¥4,000.00JP¥3,150.00JP¥4,093.005
Sep ’24JP¥3,481.00
JP¥3,380.00
-2.9%
13.7%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥3,869.005
Aug ’24JP¥3,098.00
JP¥3,230.00
+4.3%
9.0%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥4,034.005
Jul ’24JP¥2,983.50
JP¥3,110.00
+4.2%
7.4%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥4,672.005
Jun ’24JP¥2,750.00
JP¥3,000.00
+9.1%
6.9%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥4,340.005
May ’24JP¥2,625.00
JP¥3,000.00
+14.3%
6.6%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥4,494.004
Apr ’24JP¥2,580.00
JP¥2,960.00
+14.7%
6.5%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥4,494.005
Mar ’24JP¥2,395.00
JP¥2,950.00
+23.2%
6.9%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,461.505
Feb ’24JP¥2,087.50
JP¥2,950.00
+41.3%
7.8%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,668.504
Jan ’24JP¥1,957.50
JP¥3,137.50
+60.3%
8.1%JP¥3,450.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥3,701.504
Dec ’23JP¥2,212.50
JP¥3,200.00
+44.6%
9.7%JP¥3,550.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥3,595.004
Nov ’23JP¥2,002.50
JP¥3,200.00
+59.8%
9.7%JP¥3,550.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥3,361.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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