Results: Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:4186) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues were JP¥52b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥53.58 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tokyo Ohka Kogyo's 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥219.0b in 2025. This reflects a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 16% to JP¥199. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥218.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥197 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥4,619, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,310 and the most bearish at JP¥3,500 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that Tokyo Ohka Kogyo is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,619, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Tokyo Ohka Kogyo analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Tokyo Ohka Kogyo .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.