Results: Shiseido Company, Limited Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Shiseido Company, Limited (TSE:4911) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to JP¥4,810 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Shiseido Company delivered a statutory loss of JP¥8.22 per share. Revenues of JP¥249b did beat expectations by 2.2% though. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shiseido Company after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Shiseido Company

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Shiseido Company's eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.04t in 2024. This would reflect a modest 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 151% to JP¥61.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.02t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥63.53 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,833, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Shiseido Company, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,850 and the most bearish at JP¥3,320 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Shiseido Company's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 7.4% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.3% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% per year. So it looks like Shiseido Company is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shiseido Company. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shiseido Company going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Shiseido Company that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.