Nipro Corporation Just Missed EPS By 71%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Nipro Corporation (TSE:8086) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 2.4% to JP¥1,304. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥31.36, some 71% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥645b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Nipro's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥658.6b in 2026. This would be a credible 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 149% to JP¥78.11. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥658.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥92.34 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Nipro

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,360, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nipro at JP¥1,550 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,100. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nipro shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Nipro's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nipro.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nipro. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,360, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nipro going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Nipro (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.