Shareholders Can Be Confident That MODEC's (TSE:6269) Earnings Are High Quality

MODEC, Inc. (TSE:6269) recently posted some strong earnings, and the market responded positively. We did some digging and found some further encouraging factors that investors will like.

Check out our latest analysis for MODEC

Examining Cashflow Against MODEC's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

MODEC has an accrual ratio of -0.62 for the year to December 2024. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$549m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of US$220.4m. MODEC shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On MODEC's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, MODEC's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think MODEC's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Furthermore, it has done a great job growing EPS over the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with MODEC (including 2 which can't be ignored).

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of MODEC's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.