Inpex Corporation Just Beat EPS By 84%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The annual results for Inpex Corporation (TSE:1605) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were JP¥2.3t, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥345, an impressive 84% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Inpex

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering Inpex is for revenues of JP¥2.06t in 2025. This implies a chunky 8.9% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 27% to JP¥260 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.02t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥247 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of JP¥2,236, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Inpex analyst has a price target of JP¥2,700 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,840. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 2.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that Inpex's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Inpex following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although Inpex'sthey are still expected to trail the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Inpex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Inpex that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.