Earnings Miss: Inpex Corporation Missed EPS By 13% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Inpex Corporation (TSE:1605) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.7% to close at JP¥3,175 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues hit JP¥472b, beating expectations by a remarkable 22%. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came up short, with EPS of JP¥58.72 missing forecasts by 13%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering Inpex provided consensus estimates of JP¥1.94t revenue in 2026, which would reflect a noticeable 4.7% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 20% to JP¥292 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.94t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥295 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Inpex

The consensus price target rose 6.4% to JP¥2,711despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Inpex's earnings by assigning a price premium. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Inpex analyst has a price target of JP¥3,200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,940. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.8% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 1.8% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Inpex, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also made no changes to their revenue estimates, implying the business is not expected to experience any major impacts to the current trajectory in the near term, even though it is expected to trail the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Inpex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Inpex has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.