eGuarantee, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for eGuarantee, Inc. (TSE:8771) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.2% to JP¥1,737. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥2.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.5% to hit JP¥18.37 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for eGuarantee

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from eGuarantee's three analysts is for revenues of JP¥11.6b in 2026. This would reflect a decent 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 19% to JP¥83.78. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥84.07 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 9.6% to JP¥2,500, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values eGuarantee at JP¥3,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,000. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting eGuarantee's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect eGuarantee to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of eGuarantee's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for eGuarantee going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the eGuarantee Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.