Earnings Not Telling The Story For Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697)

Japan Exchange Group, Inc.'s (TSE:8697) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 13x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Japan Exchange Group has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Japan Exchange Group

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Japan Exchange Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Enough Growth For Japan Exchange Group?

Japan Exchange Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 52% gain to the company's bottom line. As a result, it also grew EPS by 21% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 7.8% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 10% per annum, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Japan Exchange Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Japan Exchange Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Japan Exchange Group that you need to be mindful of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Japan Exchange Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.